We Need a Coaching Change

I do not know what offers he had but a 6"7’ left handed player who made 1st team All CIF should have offers from most if not all of the Big 4. He only started playing water polo during his freshman year of high school and it’s worth noting he managed to get down to a 21 in the 50 free and a 47 in the 100 free by the time he was a senior. Scholarship money is a different story in water polo and most players recruited to the Big 4 do not receive appreciable scholarship money as freshmen. Nice pun! I don’t think comparing the Naval Academy and the Big 4 is helpful since they offer vastly different experiences to students. The Naval Academy attracts a certain type of person and the degree carries a lot of weight in the public and private sectors. It’s worth noting Kiefer is from San Diego which has a large Navy presence.

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Anyone have any insight into who was chosen to practice with the MNT today? I may be mistaken, but Dejan said there was around 50 players on the younger side who were invited.

Will Schneider is one.

Looking at the list of terrific players, some of them among the world’s best, is there agreement that their commitment to a second cycle after Tokyo - and high performance in Europe - was the key ingredient to their success?

And as good as they were, they were still a last second Bowen shot away from a tough outcome. That shows the high variability that’s part of the US game.

After close to twenty years, could a US coach have also led the team to a bronze in a world championship or Olympics?

This isn’t to dismiss such a high achievement. But the head of the program should be evaluated on several levels beyond that performance- and even that history doesn’t match up well with previous coaching records.

It would be strange for the previous CEO to extend the two most prominent hires … with an incoming CEO unable to weigh in, and or be informed by an expert panel and feedback from players over the decade. But maybe what’s done is done.

I feel like there will be and should be more turnover. It’s a grind for those 30 year olds to stay in shape if they aren’t all playing professionally. I just don’t see all of them sticking around for another 3.5 years. That combined with the fact that many people felt like the most recent college season had the most talent depth in a long time, I think we will some recent graduates in 2028 making a push for the team. My guess is there will be a couple other new names tossed around beyond Herzer, Larsen, Castillo, JRH. Who they will be is anyone’s guess because a lot happens in 3.5 years, but I don’t think we can just send mostly the same core but 4 years older and expect to be better.

Sending the same core and hoping to be better is essentially what we did in London after the success in Beijing, so agreed that some turnover is good and necessary to stay competitive. This is especially true looking at players the same age as our current college generation being developed in other countries.

Change is…… GOOD! :blush:

Moreover, I watched almost every game of the Olympics (not claiming any expertise, just noting) and there were a couple takeaways that are germane to this discussion.

  1. As one would expect, the margins between the top teams was small; as usual games turned on things like key exclusions/rolled players, goalie play, and of course 6v5. That leads to my second takeaway…

  2. Lefties. I know I’m not breaking any new ground with this group! And full disclosure, I’m biased with two lefty polo playing kids. However, watching teams like Serbia who ALWAYS have lefties (and elite ones at that) control their games and press home their advantage on 6v5, left (:weary:) me wondering how we showed up with exactly NONE! Just because we medaled (which was great to see by the way) doesn’t mean we constructed our team properly.

Of course, I’m going to root on our team regardless, but it will be vexing if we show up in 2028 without at least trying to develop a lefty or two before those games. We don’t need to reinvent the wheel; if it’s good enough for the Serbians and the Hungarians, shouldn’t it be good enough for US?

Who on the current USMNT roster is not playing internationally–other than those still playing in college?

Agree, a lefty would be nice, but based on what happened last cycle, the coach isn’t willing to sacrifice on defense just to have a lefty. That person needs to be able to guard the 1/2 side, which often is the other teams best shooters. Someone will have to step up their game, because there are no obvious answers at the moment.

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I remember a pretty lengthy discussion of this on WPP–maybe your comments. I recall someone posing the question this way–how many goals per game does a lefty need to average if he’s a defensive liability compared to the righty he replaces. It takes an elite lefty scorer to be worth the trade. It’s a harder question with small roster sizes, since everyone is likely to play significant minutes, and you can’t have a lefty who is there to be inserted for extra offense–say after an exclusion on a time out–and not have to play much D.

I was involved in that discussion. I think a lefty is invaluable, but the new rules where you can be inside 2m outside the cone, might level the playing field a bit if you don’t have a lefty.

The new rules are definitely important; as Adrian said on @waterpolowednesdays, “it’s easier to score”.

But ultimately I’m hoping we change away from the mindset of “we’re fine w/o a lefty” to thinking more strategically. We have great sets that get exclusions galore (we all saw it in the Olympics) and our 6v5 was limited at best. It was painful actually. You could see the other teams actually relax when we went man up. And every time we didn’t convert, the pressure ratcheted up on the next 6v5.

Those 6v5’s are so important. It comes up in every interview with coaches and players when asked about priorities. To use a baseball term, it’s a “high leverage” situation. Sometimes you bring your closer out in the 6th inning of a playoff game. I think it would increase our expected-goals/game. And I’d rather make the other team fear us on 6v5 and leave it to Adrian and the D to pick up any slack on defense.

I’ll stop talking about this now. But I’ll keep thinking about it! :weary:

I don’t disagree with you. A lefty is a big bonus. International water polo has moved to having rosters full of players that can play multiple positions and defend. They call a lot more kick outs than they used to and you need bodies to take exclusions. So to all the lefties out there, work hard on your defense.

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I would rather guard Ryder Dodd than Kiefer Black!

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Elite Leftys play defense

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@rolled11 We all understand where you are coming from but lets be real that is just crazy.

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If Dejan remains the USNT coach, I expect he will grant a number of Paris athletes a 1-2 year ‘pass’ to get married, develop careers, get healthy, etc. Going into LA28, Team USA also gets a home-team ‘pass’ that eliminates stressing for qualification placement at the World Champs, Pan Ams, etc. Net: younger players will get an early look, then probably bumped late in the quad in favor of the bronze medalists.

Re: lefty’s. Dusan Mandic may be the most dominant lefty in the world, but in Paris, imo, a number of lefties emerged as gamers. It was Konstantin Kharkov, the Russian-turned-Croatian who was the bad-ass of the tourney. And… Luke Pavillard, the Tiger-turned-Aussie, had himself a breakout tourney in Paris and has become a top lefty in the world. Mara, Fatovic, Mallerach and Encheneque… these lefties would all would be starters on any national team.

A couple of questions for campfire: Why is it that the US has not produced a top-flight lefty since Peter Varellas some 15 years ago (Dunston does not qualify)? Isn’t that the job of the High Performance Director or ODP staff? And why is it that Team Handball, with an almost similar attack as water polo, can produce multiple left-hangers on every team? Why is US water polo so ‘unique’ in its inability to develop lefthanders in quantity?
And lastly, given today’s static/vertical front court offenses and zone/drop-defenses, why do people still believe that lefties need to possess super-defensive skills to guard the 1-2 side? Could it be we all suffer ‘old bias’, much like why lefties can’t play almost any other position in baseball other than first, pitcher and maybe (occasionally) the outfield. Answer that question, and then please answer why coaches allow right-handers to play the 4/5 side in water polo but scream blood murder when a lefty drifts over to the 1-2 side?

This from a knowledgeable friend of mine:
“Dusan had the field block to win the Champions league in a hail mary miracle of a hipover. He gets attacked constantly on post ups, and Zalanki, Jokovic, Vamos, Kharkov, and Pavilard had their mettle tested the entire tournament. They are all long, strong, intelligent defenders with good drive defense. Chalo Enchenque also plays great, annoying, physical defense and is super fast. Are these unicorns?
Fact of the matter, if you’re guarding Manhercz, Di Fulvio, Fatovic, Hooper, etc. you’re likely going to be conceding a goal or two…”

This urban myth that lefty’s can’t play defense is tired and needs to be retired. We all know the primary matchup for all lefty’s in a game is the most dominate 1-2 side right handed attacker. But statistically, and historically, this is a riskier defensive assignment, but the ejection ratio is the same as right handed athletes.

It’s time the US player development brain-trust get with the changing times in our sport. In todays high-scoring attack, any great team can no longer accept reduced offensive efficiency for the dated risk of ‘lefty’s can’t play defense’.

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I am of the same mind as you about the over emphasis on defense for lefties, and would suggest an alternative reason that the US team doesn’t carry a lefty.

You mentioned Mandic as the top lefty in the world, but with things like the Total Player Award voting going the way they are it is likely that Mandic is just the best water polo player in the world. Full stop.

Likewise, you mentioned Kharkov as well as serval of the other lefties that are stalwarts of international squads. As you point out, most of them are decent defenders but not the anchors of team defensive strategies.

Instead, I’d suggest that those examples you listed play on their teams because when they are in the water they aren’t just the best lefty attacker but one of the 2 (maybe 3) best attackers in the pool for the team. Much like the concept of “gravity” that was popularized around Steph Curry in the NBA, these strong left handed players contort the defense merely by their presence in the pool.

And this brings us back to the US and their lefty situation. Even when we carry a left handed player like Dunstan or Abramson, they are not strong enough attackers (regardless of their handedness) to manipulate defenses in any way that helps the team anymore than Alex Bowen or Max Irving–two players who are often one of the top 3 attackers that the US has in the lineup. Bowen brings just as much if not more shooting threat as any lefty we have and Irving brings the passing and game sense along with the ability to score when needed from the right side.

It is not the defense that is keeping lefties off the national team, it is that the US currently doesn’t have a left handed player with enough talent to be selected over the players we have.

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Interesting viewpoint breckweiny… hard to argue.

But, aside from defensive skills and the principal value of spacing on the 6/5, you have to look at other values the left-handers bring to a team to get a full picture of their value in waterpolo… without being the dominate athlete in the pool.

In no particular order…

  • Scoring threat- as a %, lefty’s score at almost a double rate than R/H on the roster. Goalies don’t see the shots as regularly- a good reason alone to have your training camp stocked with L/H.
  • Prevent the automatic 4/5 drop- having a lefty holds the defense tighter in a spread offense. Without a lefty, most drops are focused from the 4/5 side (no big threat other than strong righties). Irving and Bowen are excellent here, but a lefty at the 5 position and 0 meter line with the new rules creates a lot of water to cover.
  • Pool spacing for attack- On the advantage, a lefty locks down the defenders more, but also allows an offensive set not to bunch up and force a crowded post scene. Even-up, the pool is more balanced and spread with a lefty in the 4/5 side. This is especially true with the new rules and the ability to shoot from 0 meters wide of the cage off a catch/shoot, a right hander must lean and inside wrap or fake to a better position.
  • Post-up threat- a decent size lefty can now post up in the new rules or even gain advantage with an aggressive drive… threats you do not naturally get with a righty. The lefty post up also forces a dilemma, a righty is blind to center cage on a post-up from the left hander side of the pool, so help can come easier from the goalie and center defender. A lefty/righty post-up combo is deadly if you can clear defenders between the post-ups. Either post-up player can draw an ordinary foul and pass strong side for a dry or wet pass.
  • Right handlers generally do not guard lefty’s very well, leading to greater ejection rates on post ups, and shots-on-goal.
  • The scoring efficiency of lefty’s cannot be denied. In Paris, of the top 8 teams, left-handers make up 10.3% of the total of 88 field players (excluding goalies), yet they scored 16.8% of total goals (excluding penalty shootouts). The US had zero lefty’s.

Last point of interest… I think the US high performance team gets average, if not failing, marks in the recruitment and development of left-handers in our national talent pool. Peter Varellas in 2008-12 was it for lefties this century on the men’s side, with his track record of production over multiple quadrennials. He led the US team in scoring at the Olympics in 2012.

Serbia, Hungary, and Croatia have been really proficient in producing world class left handers. The US can do better than one great lefty every 15-20 years.

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U20 Chamionships last year had a productive tournament and had an excellent contribution from Ben Leithy, he is in the pipeline and this summers U20 will be his second if he goes. His defense at UCLA was excellent this year. One to watch and still young.

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