Too Early 2025 Predictions

College - Mens
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Congrats to UCLA, Fordham, Stanford, USC et al on a remarkable season! While we may not agree on some things, I think we can all agree that the quality of play was high and the storylines were pretty riveting. In order to claim its 13th national championship, UCLA had to defeat the only two teams which had beaten them earlier in the season. They are worthy champions to be sure. And we got to watch a generational talent take the sport by storm right before our eyes. Personally, I can’t wait for next season. So, with limited information and many caveats, here’s my way too early Big Four predictions for next season…based purely on the paper rosters as presently constructed as I have no idea how the transfer portal and international contributions will reshape today’s rosters and tomorrow’s outlook. Here goes…

  1. UCLA. Until Ryder Dodd exhausts his collegiate eligibility, UCLA will be the favored team in the sport. He broke the MPSF season scoring record as a freshman with 102 goals?! That’s insane. I’m not sure what more he can do other than lead his team to four straight national championships. Which he just might do. With a supporting cast of his Olympian brother, Chase, along with Ben Leichty, Peter Castillo, among others, the team has virtually unlimited depth. Yes, they will likely miss the senior leadership and intangibles of Mo Kenney, Jack Larsen along with the real contributions of Voggenthaler and Tierney, but there will be more opportunities for the players on their loaded bench…Brinkema, Ben Larsen, Szecsi, Sherlock et al. In goal, Tauscher looks like the real deal so their goalie issues should be put to rest for next three years. Bruins are positioned for a two to three year run as title favorites imo.

  2. USC. Trojans will likely lose a lot top line senior talent and depth with Krantz, Maguire, Stemler and Miller and others moving on. But any team with Duarte, Martin (who emerged as a beast in the pool) and Herzer in goal will have enough front line ability to challenge for the top spot. I would imagine that Pintaric will be active in the transfer portal and they appear to have a strong freshman class coming in the fall. I would also imagine we may see the continued emergence of some players currently on the team.

  3. Stanford. It seemed like 2024 was the year that Stanford positioned itself with all of its chips. Painter, Pittman and Jensen are now likely gone. Maybe their departures will open up bigger opportunities for Ohl, Forer, Schneider and McFarland(s), among others? And perhaps they benefit from the Italian UCLA transfer? The team will likely look a bit different but Stanford still recruits itself and has top players on its roster.

  4. Cal. With each passing season, I think we will look back on Cal’s recent three peat with greater reverence. Papa and Weinberg were generational talents and, this year demonstrated, have not seen their shoes/suits effectively filled in Berkeley. Valera and Casabella are not easily replaced either. It was a remarkable run by a Bears team that will begin to be thought of as an All Time Great before too long. Very tough to replicate. But Kirk may be out recruiting overseas (or even domestically) right now so next year’s roster may have the greatest variability amongst the Big Four. Cal too, will always be good and this season may be their nadir as they rebuild. And their freshman showed promise this year so I don’t see them worse off.

As always, the margins of difference should remain thin which makes the games so exciting to watch. While I rated teams 2-4, each team could wind up second or fourth and those rankings could be mixed up randomly and still be applicable. We are still awaiting high school senior decisions on their campus destinations so that process may play a role on predictions as well.

Just my thoughts.

Looking forward to 2025

Cheers

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Stanford will only have one McFarland next year. Dash was a grad student this season. I disagree I could see USC grabbing 2-3 from the portal and dropping some goalies and redshirts, who could find great homes elsewhere. Cal had a decent class this year but we will see how Everest develops them. Next year should be another exiting year, should be lots of moving parts in the next month.

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I believe UCLA and USC will be head and shoulders above the rest of the nation next year, including Stanford and Cal. During NCAA’s, USC parents spoke about a center from Serbia who is highly talented and will be coming in as a freshman next year.

Stanford cannot make up the loss of Pittman, Jensen, McFarland, Parish, and Painter. Cal is still a team that will look to find its identity next year. Pacific, Princeton, and Fordham lose significant talent.

If LBSU is able to keep Gabi Acosta and figure out its goalie situation with the loss of both Wilson and Ward, I predict they may be around the top 5. However, if I have to predict, I think he enters the portal.

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What was your impression of Acosta this year? I only saw him play at NCAAs and it wasn’t a pretty game for his team.

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He was an extremely talented center. I believe he joined the team late after playing for Spain in the U19 Summer Euros and helped Spain get a bronze medal. If he enters the portal, all Big 4 schools will be calling his phone.

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Thank you for sharing your thoughts! I would’ve thought that USC would be the favorite for him since they have a significant amount of scholarship money opening up and the Barcelona connection to Duart but if they have a set coming in from Serbia then I am not sure that holds. Jack Martin and this player would already make for a strong pair at that position. Now that I think about it, Cal should have a good amount of scholarship money opening up.

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I still think USC should pursue him if he chooses to enter the portal and USC seems like the likely destination considering Lopez-Duart is also from the Barcelona waterpolo scene. UCLA had 3 centers this year that all played big minutes for them and it was a huge advantage. With centers, three is truly the ideal number.

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Great information

Did not know about the Serbian center who is USC bound

Agree that Stanford’s losses appear deep. But I imagine they have some talent waiting for bigger opportunities which should present themselves in 2025

And whether Acosta ends up staying or matriculating elsewhere could have a big impact

Speaking of centers, does anyone know if redshirt juniors Eli Leichty and Grant Loth plan to play their redshirt senior years at UCLA?

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If everyone who is currently on UCLA’s roster who has eligibility left returns next season (this never happens though) that would be 23 players. The new roster limit is 24 right?

I’d expect Eli Liechty to come back. Not sure about Toth - he didn’t play this year and was out due to injury I heard. Redshirt junior Trey Doten could be another player who doesn’t return next year.

As for incoming freshmen, US youth national team GK Harper Gardner is the only player officially announced by UCLA so far. Someone on another thread said Newport Harbor’s Lucca Van Der Woude just committed to UCLA. Any others for sure? Sam Bowman? Zachary Freeman?

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In addition to Harper Gardner, I believe that Hayden O’Hare from Campolindo is committed to the Bruins as well

Not sure what the official status of Van der Woude or Zachary Miller from Westlake is but both have been deemed recent UCLA commitments. Also don’t know the current status of previously - or still - committed Sam Bowman or Soren Jessen. I imagine the situation may be a bit fluid with the looming roster limits

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Does anyone know the mechanics of the portal/transfers? I understand its open and closed before new year, however, when do players have to commit to their offers by? Also, with the new club rules could a player who has entered portal and committed to another school play for a club associated with said future school even through they are seeing their academic year out?

Or are players actually transferring for Jan classes?

So much to parse here.

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It will be very interesting to see how the portal affects 2025. I imagine that incoming international players will have a big effect too. We all know that Cal will be very agressive with international players and I bet that USC will too. Stanford has been very active with the internationals since Flacks arrived and I am sure that that will continue. UCLA has several big holes to fill, so it will be interesting to see if they rely on their current depth or explore the portal and international players.

My gut tells me that we will see another UCLA v USC finals in 2025, but there will surely be a lot of moving pieces during the off-season.

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Just for the heck of it: In another thread, one of our colleagues suggested that Fordham’s 2024 water polo team would have had the best 200-free relay team. Which school’s fans would beg to differ? Answer shown below.

For those who don’t like seeing the same schools in the NCAA finals, the 2025 season may be a disappointment with UCLA and USC the early favorites. Here are my way too-early predictions, which are subject to change as we learn more about each school’s incoming class (domestic and international recruits and transfers):

The Top 2:

UCLA. UCLA loses a number of its top players, including goalie Garret Griggs, Jack Larsen (will play for Pro Recco), Mo Kenney, and center defenders Nico Tierney and Aaron Voggenthaler. However, UCLA returns Ryder Dodd (the best player in the country), fellow Olympian Chase Dodd, center Peter Castillo (a potential 2028 Olympian), LH attackers Ben Liechty and Wade Sherlock, and redshirt sophomore goalie Nathan Tauscher. Tauscher started in the 2024 NCAA semifinals and finals after Griggs injured his hand in the first-round game against Salem. UCLA’s incoming class includes center defender Lucca Van Der Woude, the CIF Southern Section Open Division co-player of the year. Van Der Woude should compete for playing time in his freshman year.

USC. USC should have its best team since 2018, the last year of the Jovan Vavic era. USC loses center Max Miller, center defender Luka Brnetic, and Carson Kranz, but returns goalie Bernardo Herzer (may be the 2nd goalie on the 2028 Olympic team), LH center Jack Martin, Robert Lopez Duart (likely to be a 2024 Cutino Award finalist), Stefan Brankovic (hasn’t played as well as many people expected), and Andrej Grgurevic. If the early reports are true, USC will probably have the best incoming class, with Pacific-transfer Mihailo Vukazic (one of the best college players in 2024), highly sought-after Serbian center Strahinja Krstic, and LH attacker Kai Takeshi Inoue (played for Japan in the 2024 Olympics). The very best players from Spain, Italy, Greece, Hungary, Serbia, and Croatia rarely play college water polo in the United States (Hungary’s Balazs Erdelyi and Greece’s Kostas Genidounias are two notable exceptions to the general rule). Krstic could be another exception. https://waterpoloroster.com/WaterPoloNews/3780/strahinja-krstic-named-the-best-young-athlete

But I digress: USC’s incoming 2018 class was one of the best in recent memory with goalie Nic Porter (Australia’s starting goalie in the 2024 Olympics), center defender Jake Ehrhardt (has returned to the senior national team pipeline after recovering from an illness), Hannes Daube (2x Olympian), and left-handed attackers Jacob Mercep (transferred to USC from San Jose State, played for Australia in the 2024 Olympics) and Sawyer Rhodes (transferred to USC from Stanford). One point to anyone who can name a better incoming class.

No. 3:

Stanford. Stanford loses five of its best players, center defender Blake Parrish, center Dash McFarland, LH attacker Jackson Painter, Riley Pittman, and Soren Jensen (will play professionally in Greece). Stanford returns goalie West Temkin, center Will Schneider, utility player Alex Gheorge, Ryan Ohl, and Hungarian Botond Balogh. Temkin, Schneider, and Ohl are potential senior national team players. I think Balogh will have a breakout season in his sophomore year. If the rumor mill is correct, Harvard center James Rozolis-Hill, a potential 2028 Olympian, will transfer to Stanford. Stanford will also add graduate student G.P. Di Martire. Di Martire played for UCLA in 2021 and 2022, but missed most of the 2023 season with an injury and didn’t play last year. Di Martire was a 2nd team All-American in 2022. Even with Rozolis-Hill and Di Martire, Stanford needs to add an elite international player or transfer to challenge UCLA and USC for the top two spots.

The next 5 (in no particular order):

Cal. Cal’s 2024 team holds the dubious distinction of being the only Cal water polo team during the NCAA era with a losing record (12-13). It didn’t help that Roberto Valera, Cal’s second-best player, missed most of the season with an injury and that the goalie play was inconsistent. Still, a sub-500 record at Cal is embarrassing. Cal loses Valera, center George Avakian, Jake Howerton, and its best player, Max Casabella. If the rumor mill is correct, Cal will add Pepperdine center Chase Wilson and UCSB’s Luke Bachler from the transfer portal. No current college water polo coach has done a better job recruiting international players than Kirk Everist. To compete with UCLA, USC, and Stanford in 2025, Everist needs to add at least one elite international player and incoming sophomore Patrick Kolak needs to play up to his advance billing.

Princeton loses its top two field players (Roko Pozaric and Vladan Mitrovic), center George Caras, and Mason Killion. Princeton returns five full or part-time starters, including Kristof Kovacs (one of the two or three best goalies in the country). Princeton’s incoming class includes center Otto Stothart. Stothart’s senior year at Harvard-Westlake wasn’t as good as some had predicted. If he plays up to his potential, Stothart could be a multiple-year All-American.

Fordham. Fordham loses 6 of its top players to graduation but returns Balazs Berenyi and Barnabas Eppel and its two best players, freshmen Luca Provenziani and Andras Toth. Our colleague, Trevor, predicts that Fordham won’t lose any of its key underclassmen to the winter or spring transfer portals. If he’s correct, Fordham will be a top-8 team or better if it has or recruits a good goalie to replace 4-year starter Thomas Lercari.

LBSU. LBSU will be a top-8 team or better if freshmen centers Gabi Acosta (Big West Conference Player of the Year) and Stanley Corbin don’t transfer. In addition to Acosta and Corbin, LBSU returns Caleb Francisco (1st team all-Big West Conference). Like Fordham, LBSU needs to replace a very good goalie.

U.C. Irvine. UCI returns most of the starters from its 2024 team, including Luka Kristic (1st team all-Big West Conference), Cole Francisco, Johann Thrall, and Ethan Spoon, and has a good recruiting class.

Other schools in the mix: UCSD, Cal Baptist, Pepperdine, and U.C. Davis.

Answer to the trivia question: UCLA. Consider these two 200-free relay teams from UCLA’s 2024 team (each of these individuals is scheduled to return in 2025, times shown are from an individual’s high school career):

Team 1: Max Matthews (20.55 and 44.49), Ryder Dodd (20.3 relay split as a high school sophomore, 45.50 as a high school junior, and 1:37.23 as a high school junior), Andrew Spencer (21.08 as a high school junior), and Bode Brinkema (20.48 and 44.93)

Team 2: Vinnie Merk (21.45), Chase Dodd (44.81 relay split), goalie Nick Tovani (21.83), and Carson Gray (21.31)

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Great write up Jeff - as usual. I think its worth noting that Cal has a swing of around 22 players (losing around 11 seniors, gaining around 11 or 12 with recruits and portal). This means it will be a completely new team, and I hear it includes a very solid Spaniard and potentially the SJSU goalie. I think they will be the biggest wild card next year, can definitely see them finishing 5th or below but would not be surprised if they have some big wins as well.

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I’ve heard from several sources that Kai Takeshi Inoue is probably not going to USC in the fall and that UCLA and Cal are the leading contenders.

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Hopefully some of the World Cup games are streamed and we can see him in action against US in first round. I heard a handful of current US college players on team USA in Romania.

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All games streamed here:
World Cup Stream

:slight_smile:

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Also here →

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The hazards of making predictions too early:

  1. Contrary to earlier reports, it appears that Kai Takeshi Inoue will choose Cal or UCLA, not USC. I think his style of play is better suited for Cal but his brother played for UCLA.

  2. Contrary to earlier reports, Mihailo Vukazic is still deciding between USC and Cal.

  3. I have heard from multiple sources on both coasts that James Rozolis-Hill intends to stay at Harvard for his senior year. However, he reportedly will not play college water polo this fall. Instead, he intends to use his final year of eligibility as a graduate student in California in the fall of 2026. Rozolis-Hill and the other individuals mentioned in this posting have time to change their minds.

In other news, Pepperdine’s Chase Wilson and UCSB’s Luke Bachler have reportedly decided to transfer to Cal. Cal is also hoping to recruit an international goalie, considered by some to be the best 18u goalie in Europe.

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It’s still early but I am a little surprised there haven’t been more transfer announcements. I haven’t heard anything out of Long Beach.