I think that USC needs to win tomorrow to get a bid. Otherwise, Pacific will get it. Graham has run the numbers and I think that they will get in. I do not think that they deserve it, but they have taken advantage of the criteria that the NCAA has given them.
To me, the bigger question is, if USC wins tomorrow, who will get in between Pacific and Stanford? Due to Pacific’s loss in the semis, I think that Stanford will get in, but who knows?
If UOP has a higher strength of schedule, then they would get in over USC or Stanford. I’m skeptical that they are above either team. They do have a better record so they have the advantage there. If it’s a tie then it goes to secondary criteria. First up is head to head and they didn’t play. Next up is common opponents and USC would win over UOP based on being 1-0 v CBU and UOP being 1-1. Stanford might actually be more vulnerable because they didn’t play CBU or Fordham. So it goes to late season performance. I’m not positive but I think that is last 10 games. UOP had 2 losses and Stanford has 2 losses in their last 9. So they really need to win tomorrow or UOP will jump them. If Stanford wins, then it goes to RPI and that’s where UOP’s chicanery might put them over Stanford. Stanford really wants UCLA to win tomorrow.
Edit: USC has 3 losses in their last 9 games so Stanford has the edge over USC. So I think if USC loses tomorrow they still have the edge over UOP. If they win, Stanford is in trouble. And if Stanford loses to Cal they probably don’t make it over UOP. Also UCLa has the 1 seed locked up and have nothing to play for tomorrow except pride. They have owned USC this year so if they lose tomorrow it will be curious
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40610?utf8=✓&commit=Submit
The latest RPI rankings that include games that happened today
Losing to CBU at home , conference semi-finals could and should jeopardize their chances. Who did UOP defeat to make a case for being selected over Stanford or USC? I’m no expert, but I don’t see how UOP’s strength of schedule could be stronger than that of Stanford or USC.
This is one where the humans in charge of the system have the opportunity to do the right thing.
With Pepperdine losing to SJSU today, that really leaves UOP with no quality wins and sorry to say they should not be rewarded.
If UOP had just the one loss to Fordham, it would be different…it’s been a wild week in college polo.
I’m not sure how much subjectivity there is. It’s pretty cut and dry. But, this is an unprecedented situation where two teams didn’t play the big 4 and are ranked very high. I normally can pick the teams and seedings pretty easily, but I’m not as confident this year. I’ll make my predictions after the games tomorrow
I wouldn’t say no quality wins for UOP. Princeton twice, UCI, Long Beach are quality wins. Everyone is sleeping on Princeton. Thats a very good team
I guess I should have clarified — no wins over teams that were ranked in the top 5 at any point during the season.
Totally agree that Princeton could beat anyone on the right day and the same could be said for UCI, LBSU, or UCSD.
Honestly, i heard rumors over the summer that CBU was looking really solid. They had a bit of an up and down season but they have some excellent pieces there and they put it together when it counted big time today!
USC and Stanford are now 2-2 head to head this year. Stanford has a win over UCLA but also has the Cal loss so I don’t know which one would be ranked higher right now.
I could actually see USC beating UCLA tomorrow, USC seems to peak at the MPSF tournament and lose at NCAAs. Especially with a meaningless game for UCLA
Looks like USC will win the auto bid. Here are my predictions. I’m less certain than I have ever been as it is usually cut and dry. The UOP/Fordham schedules make me less certain.
If for some reason UOP knocks Stanford out, the seedings could be interesting.
Pacific-Stanford is the debate. So using the criteria, we can probably break this down:
W/L Record: Pacific
Strength of Schedule: If you filter this site to ranking report it shows SOS (Opp. Success) which I would take to mean Strength of Schedule. It has Pacific 3rd and Stanford 6th. What we don’t know is if Stanford went up by virtue of playing Cal today.
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/division_ranking_reports/40610
Availability of players: Even
Last Ten Games: Pacific 8-2, Stanford 7-3
RPI: Pacific is 2nd and Stanford is 4th entering today per the below. We don’t know what impact today’s results have had yet.
https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/nitty_gritties/40610
I think Pacific is going to win the slot if this is strictly by the criteria laid out.
If that is the case, below are where the seeds come out in my opinion:
Subjectivity should not enter the discussion but if it does, then it would enter with the Stanford-Pacific debate. I think there would have to be some discussion as well about not pairing the only two Eastern contenders against each other in the first round.
Just my opinion, but I don’t think there should be any consideration about whether 2 east coast teams meet in the first round. They should play each other if that’s how the seeding works out. I don’t understand how the RPI metric is calculated, but it’s hard for me to look at the teams they played, especially once we consider who they had to face in their conference tournaments, and argue that Pacific faced stronger competition than Stanford. Stanford has more losses, but they played more games (24 vs 20 for Pacific) and played 9 games against the other members of the Big 4, who are ranked 1st (UCLA), 3rd (USC) and 7th (Cal) in RPI. If Pacific does get the nod, I hope there is a hard look at whether a team should benefit in RPI if they avoid scheduling 4 of the top 10 teams in the country.
Agree. They don’t consider geographic location anymore for seeds. They used to for play in games but the tournament isn’t set up that way anymore. If UOP gets in over Stanford I think changes will be coming in the future. But that Stanford loss to Cal may end up being the difference maker.
Do you think if Fordham lost in the conference tournament they would of gotten an at large?
Is the Stanford loss to Call offset by the Pacific loss to Cal Baptist, at least in part?
Yes RB you wrote you hadn’t seen a particularly controversial year but here is men’s 2024. This should usher in a much better index - overdue for WP - and perhaps an additional at-large;)
Trevor thoughtful data. Most sports retain the committee decision making in the end, as does water polo. So it is inherently subjective and the criteria are loosely written. Regarding strength of schedule, Stanford’s is much more difficult if it is defined traditionally: playing the best teams. On the webpage they have the 1 toughest raw opponent SOS because they played the best ranked teams (especially UCLA and USC) so many times. Pacific is ranked 12.
As for opponent “success,” yes Pacific is ranked 3 and Stanford is 6. Maybe that narrows a bit but one or two games won’t move it much.
What explains the discrepancy? Pacific played top teams in weaker conferences, like Harvard and Brown, boosting opponent winning % while not risking a loss. Their early games against Iona and MIT are listed as exhibitions. They didn’t play teams like Davis, a team committed to a tough schedule which might have a losing record in a down year.
Who had the tougher schedule? When compared side-by-side, Stanford did by far. Look at the games with rankings. If this were football or basketball, Stanford would get the nod and easily. But your point taken.
It’s a hypothetical and moot point now but since they beat UOP they would have gotten the nod over UOP. Stanford should be picked over UOP but with all the computed criteria and no head to head it will be a toss up!
USC did what they needed to do with a great statement win. UCLA gave them all they have, it was a great game and most likely a preview for the NCAA finals.
That’s an interesting question. That would have assumed three teams for one spot (Fordham, Pacific, Stanford). Fordham wins the W/L metric, finishes third in SOS, wins H2H over Pacific, wins the last ten games measure but finishes third in the RPI. I think the committee would have had an incredibly sleepless night as that becomes a coin flip.
An interesting wrinkle. The committee is chaired by the UOP AD. But he has to recuse himself for the at large since his school is in consideration. That leaves the Harvard associate AD, the Iona Coach, the Claremont coach and Dan Leyson. My conspiracy theory side of me is curious why UOP and Davis did not play this year. They are close to each other and always play. Leyson may have enormous sway.
My guess is they would not get an at large. There is no precedent for it and they played a weak schedule. I’m not sure but I think strength of schedule is calculated from that opponent sos column only. So UOP is 12 and Fordham was even lower than that. I think anything can happen this year because there is no frame of reference for UOP’s schedule. In 2019 they got in over UCLA and Cal because they had some big wins against big 4 teams. They don’t have that this time. In 2015 they tried to game it by skipping the MPSF south tournament, even though they were the 2nd best team in the MPSF conference heading into MPSF champs. They lost to USC in the semis and USC got in over them with a worse record. I think they were punished for skipping that tournament. But it’s a different committee this time. I fear that they have gamed the system and will get in over Stanford, who is the better team.