At the request of several of our colleagues, I’m starting a new thread for those who wish to discuss the seeding and makeup of the 2024 NCAA Tournament. Please post your comments on these subjects here.
What do we think Fordham will be ranked? On that note, why didn’t their coach schedule them any B4 games? Seems impressive to have an undefeated season – maybe Bacharach was trying to shrink the sample size and have one (or two) big games at the end of the season to potentially win a title?
If UCLA wins the MPSF tournament and Stanford finishes 2nd or 3rd, Pacific wins the West Coast Conference, Fordham wins the CWPA Mid-Atlantic Conference, and Princeton wins the CWPA NEWPC, I think the seeding in the NCAA tournament will be as follows:
- UCLA
- Stanford
- Fordham
- Pacific
- USC
- Princeton
- Big West Conference winner
- WWPA winner
If this is the actual seeding, the 1 vs. 8 game won’t be competitive. Stanford will beat the winner of the Big West conference in a reasonably close game. The 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 games could go either way.
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I agree with your seedings except I would flip Fordham and Stanford. I do not see how the committee can follow the criteria laid out and seed a four loss Stanford team (which happens if they lose to UCLA or USC) over an undefeated Fordham squad. If they did, I think it would at least warrant some sort explanation like they do in college basketball (which would be awesome if it happened on WP Wednesday).
I do wonder about Pacific though. Because of the head to head loss to Fordham, they will be seeded behind them. However, a one-loss team with a top two RPI ranking. I actually think that is going to be the hottest debate topic in the seeding room. Not Fordham-Stanford at 2.
Only one team has beaten UCLA this year. Stanford should be number 2… Fordham may be good, but we won’t know for several weeks and there strength of schedule doesn’t move them to a number 2 ranking…
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When Fordham beat Pacific, the Tigers were ranked #1 in the country in the RPI which is the only ranking metric the committee is allowed to use. UCLA has now taken over at #1 so that is a great win for Stanford.
Losses matter also and Stanford lost to Cal. Cal has lost to Pepperdine, UC-Irvine (by 8), Princeton and Long Beach State.
I could be wrong (my wife would say I am wrong at least 50% of the time) but I don’t see how Fordham-Stanford can be lined up side by side using their criteria and Fordham isn’t the two seed. I think the bigger debate will be Pacific-Stanford at 3. Just my two cents.
I thought someone said they don’t use RPI? I think you make a good argument, with Stanford losses, but still in my opinion think Stanford is number 2…time will tell…
Your post is a bit confusing. If RPI is the “only metric,” Stanford and USC will be well ahead of Fordham. Fordham has played one team in the top 5, and one team in 6-10. Their RPI will continue to drop due to the fact they have the easiest conference tournament.
What I meant by that it is the only ranking metric listed amongst the seeding criteria which is below in section 2.4.
The first set of criteria used is:
-W/L record
-Strength of Schedule
-Eligibility of student-athletes (i.e. no key injuries)
The next set of primary criteria then used is:
-Head to head
-Results versus common opponents
-Late season performance
-RPI
Thank you for providing this. In other rating systems, the typical weighting of winning percentage and strength of schedule is 25% to 75%, with additional bonuses tacked on for Tier One outcomes (in WP case Top 5ish).
USC may come out ahead of Fordham in this scenario. The committee has its hands full. But to place a team at #2/3 having played just two games in the top 10 is a reach when most others - including Princeton - have played about a dozen (or more).
One idea floating around football: if the 12 playoff coaches ranked the teams cross country style from least preferred opponent to most preferred, how would that change seedings?
For future years, the NCAA is replacing RPI with a modern schedule-adjusted formula to take pressure off committees. This single rating could be the primary guide in WP, subject to override in extraordinary circumstances (such as an 0-3 head-to-head record) which the committee should keep in such a unique sport.
In Fordham’s defense, I would actually note that their schedule is as good as it could be as it had UCSD, UCSB, SJSU, Harvard, Cal Baptist in addition to Princeton and Pacific as nonconference games.
When the committee looks at schedule strength it is going to be through the lens of how teams did against the RPI Top 20. If you believe 2-3-4 is going to be between Fordham-Stanford-Pacific. The current stats there are:
Fordham 12-0
Stanford 15-3
Pacific 13-1
Trevor, This is a very weak argument. I mean, how often a top 4 contender has losses against teams ranked 11-20? You should look at games vs top ten teams…
If Fordham program is not a one-time wonder (as I hope) they will get their games vs Big 4 opponents scheduled pretty soon. I understand that long-suffering East coast fans have (finally) real contenders to cheer for, but impatience is pretty funny - sorry.
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The last CWPA poll came out today, and has UCLA ranked #1, Stanford #2, and USC and Fordham tied for third. I can no longer find the 2024 RPI rankings. All I can find on the NCAA site are 2023 ranikings for RPI. There have not been a lot of significant games since the last version for 2024 I saw around November 10, where Fordham was ranked 5th in RPI.
The Nov. 10 RPI is still the most recently published version.
I am not there with the undefeated piece. Back in 2019, Harvard Men came in undefeated at 29-0 and lost in the First Round to an 8 loss Bucknell team. That same year, UOP and Stanford had byes and played in Semi’s where it took Stanford 2OT to beat USC. UOP beat Pepperdine to get into Final, then lost to Stanford in Final 13-8 where the Half Time score was 9-3.
Harvard that year beat ranked teams: UCSD, GW 2X, St Francis 2X, Princeton 2X, SJSU, Pitzer, Brown and Bucknell 2X.
A couple notes that differentiate those two teams.
-Harvard’s only win over a top ten team was by 1 over UCSD (who was ranked ninth in the polls at the time). Fordham beat Pacific (who was ranked first in the country by RPI at the time and is second now) by 4, Princeton (ranked eighth currently in RPI) by 3 and San Jose State (ranked tenth currently in RPI) by 2. So 3-0 versus top ten teams with none of them being a one-goal game.
-Harvard had only beaten Bucknell by 1 during the regular season. This is why it wasn’t regarded as a monumental upset when it happened.
-Harvard won seven games by ten goals or more. Fordham has won seventeen games by ten goals or more.
Good response. Only outcome will settle this and all the above. However seeding works out, gotta get past a very good MPSF team. We can pontificate but things change when you’re in the moment. The mental metal these teams will need while facing a UCLA/Stanford/USC will be a Coach / Team Leader opportunity.
Gotta get thru Conference’s first. Would be classic with a Final of UOP vs Fordham, or throw in Princeton. Would be great for the sport.
Rating systems are designed to inform debates like these. The current RPI is clumsy, and vulnerable to scheduling avoidance, but still places Fordham 5. It will be ultimately replaced by a modern system that in this case would lower its current rating. For example, to incentivize competition, basketball implemented a NET system that uses quadrants. Many sports have gone to this. In water polo NET would give significant credit for Top 5 contests, and some for 6-10. This will create more overlap at the top, and schedules that look more like Princeton’s.
But for perspective this is about seeding, not the most important thing: qualification. Among the Top 25, Fordham has the easiest conference path, lowering the odds of a real controversy until the NCAA’s new system is tested and blessed. Great tournament ahead no question. Hopefully the press keeps increasing - Fordham has set a great example here.
With UCLA beating Cal and USC beating Stanford, is there still any path to an at-large for Pacific. Asking the people that are well informed about the decision making process.
If USC wins the tournament, I’d be shocked if Pacific is even in consideration.
If UCLA wins, does Pacific stand a chance?
In a simple answer…no Pacific ended their bid for NCAAs with that loss to CBU.