(1) UCLA. Embarrassed UOP thoroughly this week. If they can beat USC next weekend they should have a good hold on the 1 seed
(2) USC. A win over UCLA next weekend gives them the edge for 1 overall
(3) Stanford. They will likely destroy UOP tomorrow and then the big match with Cal next weekend. That’s going to be a hostile crowd working against them, but I think they are the better team
(4) Fordham. Smooth sailing until NCAAs
(5) UOP. Its hard for me to put them at 5 after that shockingly bad performance against UCLA but if they get the auto bid, they likely land at 5 given their number of losses is better than everyone below them. Won’t be remotely surprised if they don’t make the tournament though
(6) Long Beach. Really finishing the season strong and I would say the moderate favorites at this point for the auto bid. They will have more losses than UOP or San Jose State, but they have a better strength of schedule than both of them so they could get the 5 seed. Have a tough last game against LMU that they would need to win to help their seeding
(7) Princeton. Have 1 more loss than Long Beach and still have to play Harvard. I think it’s a coin flip with Harvard at this point
If Princeton and Long Beach State are close, Princeton has a win over Long Beach State in Beach’s pool. I could see the committee giving Princeton the nod in terms of seeding as a road win carries weight.
Just as a note, Princeton beat Harvard today 12-9. Get the top seed in the conference tournament by goal differential as Harvard had beaten them by 1.
When the conference tournaments are done I will do a deeper dive. The most important criteria are losses and strength of schedule and I believe Long Beach takes both those categories (although I’m guessing on SOS, but LB has a higher RPI). If Long Beach loses to LMU this week, then it’s gets more interesting because they would have the same number of losses.
If LBSU continues this roll they’re on and does indeed end up with the 6th seed, whoever gets the 3rd seed is not going to be happy to see them in Round One.
That’s a great win for UCI. I wouldn’t count them out, especially since they are hosting the tournament. I think LBSU is playing better, but I still think they are very beatable.
Here are the scenarios for the WCC:
If Pepperdine beats Santa Clara, there will be a three-way tie for third place. I assume the tiebreaker is Goal differential among the tied teams to figure out the initial tiebreaker and H2H for the remaining two teams. However, please correct me if you have the verified tiebreaker because I am just speculating. Pepperdine would win the hypothetical tiebreaker as they lost to CBU by five, but beat LMU by seven, and the +2 goal differential is the highest. Not that it really matters, but LMU would be 4th due to the H2H over CBU.
If Santa Clara beats Pepperdine, LMU finishes third with wins over both Santa Clara and CBU (+7 goal differential), and CBU finishes 4th, followed by Santa Clara and Pepp.
I’ll preface my next statement by saying that Pacific has done well in October and proved many, myself included, wrong. However, I’d love to be the 4/5 seed playing Pacific over the 3/6 seed playing SJSU. Pacific is young and inexperienced in the biggest moments. SJSU has returners who have played at the conference tournament and will be led by a super motivated Gyapjas.
Well in person it sure looked like they tried to me! First time they played LMU without Landon and that seemed to be the difference. To say a team of D1 athletes with a national team coach played like they were unmotivated is odd. The vibe on the pool deck bega to differ.
Week 11 is in the books. This week will be super short again. I plan to publish in-depth rankings after the conclusion of the regular season this weekend.
1. (T): USC & UCLA: This tiebreaker will be settled this weekend.
3. (T): Stanford & Cal: This tiebreaker will also be settled this weekend.
5. Fordham
6. LBSU: Trending up at the right time
7. Pacific
8. SJSU
9. UC Davis
10. Pepperdine
11. LMU
12 (T): UCSB & UCSD
14. Princeton
15. UCI
16. CBU
17. Santa Clara
18. Harvard
19. Brown
20 (T): CMS & Navy
Ucsb plays davis in the semis for the big west tournament, as long as davis beats fullerton in quarters. I think davis will have a big shot in reaching the final getting past sb because from what I have heard from sources that Brock Zamanian (ucsb’s leading scorer) fractured his dominant hand thumb playing against fullerton this past weekend.
UCSD looked plenty motivated before the game started. LMU simply outplayed them. It’s why you play the game and you better bring it every time you line up.