@NLM, From my limited experience with USAWP, I would be stunned if they are doing any analytics whatsoever on the ODP level. I hope I’m wrong…
Also, puberty is the great equalizer. I would also hope they take that into account in trying to identify future prospects but from everything I’ve read in this thread, I doubt they do.
I agree. The ODP system has significant flaws and often appears to function more as a revenue stream for USA Water Polo rather than a genuine program for identifying and developing talented players for the future.
Yes and No. they are also providing an experience. There are kids they are very talented and may come from less competitive clubs. It gives them a chance to see water polo with a different lens and invigorate their love for the sport and make it fun. Nonetheless, it’s also social.
For those commenting on selection flaws, I agree in a theoretical sense but my comment in the end would be the cream tends to rise to the top. If you are truly the best, you are selected time and again.
If you are just as good as the person from the big club with the big last name…then yes the familiarity will come into play.
While I commented earlier about most senior team players not making a team at some point, I’m not sure we have seen too many who never made an ODP zone team.
Cool!
Could you also refine the data by the y.o.b.?
The future Olympians will make a zone team and NTSC at some point, so the system works in this sense.
As for “ordinary” folks, I am not sure how much ODP is valuable, say for college recruitment purposes. If a kid from a big zone can play, coaches will find them regardless. And a truly talented kid from a smaller zone is almost assured to make a team, right? One can look at the whole process as just another useful water polo camp followed by another useful water polo tournament. And the social aspect is also nice.
I believe a good number of the most recent Olympic team were on a zone team. Hooper was cut from the development national team so the lore goes.
They are very clear that you only have to attend one camp. Kids already in the pipeline aren’t required to do as many steps. It’s better that the coaches are focusing on the new players at those camps and not on established players.
The zone coaches already know most of the best players in the zone simply from playing against them year after year. If coaches aren’t game planning for your kid at Kap 7, your kid may not be on the radar for a zone team and really needs to shine at a camp. It does happen that way sometimes. I completely disagree that “You need to have the ‘right’ last name, your club coach on deck , made a previous team and the correct birthday ect” I’ve seen plenty of kids make teams that don’t fit those criteria.
I think Johnny was JO mvp at 10u, so there’s that.
Thanks for doing this analysis. So, each quarter contains two years of data for the period? I wonder if the younger year gets more skewed to Q1 then the older year at the same level.
Now I must know if the trend continues and the percentages even out at Youth where the 11 extra months are a smaller percentage of total development time. I really am curious. I think Q3 is the most common birth quarter, by a little.
ODP is one of the most expensive flawed programs I have seen across a couple of sports.You can look at the design and see that it is about revenue disguised as an attempt to make a national team. There is also no development whatsoever in some of the zones. Having two weekends before NTSC is not necessary in most zones, or having 2 teams during the regional weekend. The Zone coaches already know who in their zone will make the team for the second weekend. So why have that amount of families shell out such a high amount of money, especially for areas with no development happening in ODP. Some even have zone representatives that are not club or high school coaches. Why would you expect players of any level to be developed by someone that has not coached water polo in over a decade, and why would USAWP allow that. Those are the same coaches that alert USAWP who to take from their zones for academy or NTSC. It is incompetence at best, a money grab at worst. The amount people then pay when selected to NTSC after already spending thousands the first two weekends and you have a recipe for skepticism.
Do you really think zones outside of CA need two weekends? I have seen it so many times and can confidently say that most of the time they do not.
Thank you for the data.
It is great that PSW zone has a talented kid born in 2014 with a significant potential. The very name Development suggests that the programs should look for such kids, choose them over some older kids, and give them an opportunity to flourish!
The aspect I find interesting is the Q1 issue being more pronounced in the down year. This is a small dataset and what is there could all be attributed to noise, but it appears the upper year ‘must win right now’ kids benefit less from a Q1 birthday than the amount a Q1 birthday benefits down year ‘in the pipeline’ kids. By the time you get to the 2009 kids, the Q1 advantage evaporates.
The Q1 advantage may dissipate a bit, but the Q4 disadvantage is alive and well throughout.
Q3 is an interesting subset to consider. Taking into consideration Gladwell’s hypothesis in “Outliers,” water polo is a unique animal in that kids with fall birthdays enjoy an advantage out of the gate due to the JO cutoff. Being “old” in their 10u and 12u years may allow them to make a club’s A-teams, be coached by better coaches, have more playing opportunities, more playtime within those opportunities, and generally be more likely to develop within the youth water polo environment. Then they get to ODP and it’s suddenly a January 1 cutoff date. But Gladwell would contend, I believe, that the positives gained by having a “good” birthday by JO standards would carry over into the skill and confidence they are able to demonstrate at ODP. This could even carry over to coaches and evaluators who know who the “good” players are more within the context of their JO birthdays than they do their once-a-year ODP birthdays. That may be why there are a solid number of August/September athletes who do very well within ODP.
I’ve been following the ODP discussion for the past few days and wanted to provide an additional viewpoint which supports the value of the ODP pipeline process.
First of all, I want to acknowledge that all of the criticisms of the ODP pipeline process are reasonably sustained through observation and that parent (and coach) frustrations are absolutely valid.
That being said, the flaws in the process are symptoms of the much broader problem – that the sport of water polo is expensive. Those costs can be traced back to the community size, pool availability, the costs of heating pools, etc.
This means that polo clubs, USA WP, and ultimately ODP rely heavily on volunteers to execute the process which results in limited player tracking “through time” from within the ODP process itself. I suspect that this gives rise to a not-unreasonable amount of selection bias since the ODP coaches (essentially ODP volunteers) have a greater degree of objective performance data and subjective performance evaluation to those players within their sphere of interaction during the year. When the time to select player arrives, it’s not hard to assume that some decisions have already been made which then leads to the question - Why have the ODP process at all?
Finally, we arrive to where I feel like I can add value to the conversation through my personal experience with the process. I think that ODP offers two absolutely significant benefits for players:
Essentially, the ODP process is “throwing the kids into the river” which enhances their learning and skill development. On a side note, this is why playing teams as often as possible and playing those teams in higher age brackets in club season is so important for player development. Here is a paper from the National Center for Biotech Information that discusses the process:
Making lasting memories: Remembering the significant
Yes ODP is expensive but any play is better than no play and perceived important play (emotional play) is vastly superior to any other type. Many times this is referred to as Championship Game Experience.
ODP introduces players to an environment where they are exposed to each other and places them in positions where they are required to trust and value one another. This simple process makes great strides towards mending club v club strife and generates lasting friendships and enhances player value within the minds of players and parents alike. Anecdotally, my son is a happier and more confident player though his experience with ODP and my family’s water polo experience and mental health has been enhanced over the years because of this program. I understand that this may not reflect every players experience with the process but the local value that I have observed has been worth every penny spent.
In a perfect world, there would be a legion of paid national team staffers that would keep objective evaluations and playstyle assessments on players year round who’s purpose was to attend every quarterfinal, semifinal and final game and make selections based on that aggregated data. However, we are not Greece, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, etc., and USAWP is not state funded so we have to work with what we have. Is the process flawed? Yes. Is it better than nothing? Absolutely not, ODP provides real value to the community.
I want to note on your last portion that usawp’s yearly revenue is roughly 10x Croatian national water polo federation. Where does that money go?
And not to mention no player in any European national Team, needs to pay a dime nor raise further funds to travel (includes the selection camps they attend 4+ times per year).
@PoloEnthusiast
This is a fantastic question that I don’t have an answer for but would like the answer to!
@WPolo9
If water polo were as popular as basketball or football, I’m assuming the case would be the same here. Ultimately, the European National Teams have greater support than our own. Which opens the discussion as to why do we lose great players at the highest levels because they can’t support families while dedicating the time needed to play at those levels.
Financials:
(page 11)
Looks like the ODP program had a deferred revenue of just over $200k. In a vacuum, we could say that the program has the resources to be improved. I claimed that ODP relies on volunteers, can someone confirm or deny that for me? That being said, my discussion points on the benefits of ODP remain valid regardless of the opportunity to improve the process.
Zone coaches and National team staff are paid for zone camps. National team selection camp is a volunteer basis for zone coaches, not sure about national team staff.