Some great information in the above two posts thank you. My only question is how to get a good team like Fordham more exposure to high quality games in the future, because actually there are reasons not to seed them higher if they lose to Pacific: strength of schedule. Yes they have “passed every test” by beating Princeton at home. They don’t have another top 10 victory. Compare their schedule to Princeton’s.
This isn’t about this year because both will be seeded, they played head-to-head, and it will be a great tournament from the start (except for 1 v 8, which should be solved in 2025). But in future years, does the sport want to punish teams who schedule the best opponents, and have a lower winning percentage? Or should it encourage multiple tough matchups?
This is a question of scheduling. Coaches are easily able to predict quality a year out. Fordham was predicted to be good long ago, but it’s hard to align the academic schedule with top opponents and willingness to play Top 7-8ish on both sides. Princeton has perfected this, adding a lot to the sport. Hopefully teams can similarly support other top eastern teams when future schedules are made.
Great points, and it certainly helps Princeton they have a week off school in the middle of the season to do what they did. But kudos to Dusty for the willingness to do it. My understanding is Fordham tried to get big 4 games but for whatever reason the stars didn’t align. I still think head to head is best tiebreaker, but agree a tough schedule should also count…a big win or two over an elite team could supersede a close H2H loss, but in this case Princeton didn’t beat anyone in the Top 5 either
That is a great summary. I think I would give Cal a higher ranking than UCI and not a tie if they stick with the better gk. East Coast, I 1do not think SB has any hope of breaking top 15. They will improve with a healthy 2nd meter international player, but Wigo is stuck with a mannequin gk and seems to have no options. Harvard and San Jose both beat UCSB because they have outside shooters.
UCD must have been in a five star hotel. They came ready to play. Totally different team from Saturday. This should be a warning to all top teams. If you underestimate your opponent they will test you before your can take back your momentum. Davis on Saturday and UCLA both squeaked out with a W. By sheer luck.
This is a year when you need to come to play, or risk losing. Stanford beat both USC and UCLA on the road. Showed up at Cal, thinking they would just roll over…not this year…and everyone wants to beat the number 1.
I agree UCLA is the favorite, but I believe anyone could win it this year. Pacific and Fordham, no one really knows… should be exciting…
With a noon game, I am sure the History and Algebra teachers in the classrooms next to the pool at Dos Pueblos will be appreciative of the constant whistles after lunch time.
Here is a list if the top 18 teams in D1 with their records against ONLY D1 teams. Playing D3 really should not be considered. I did not take into account lower level D1 teams so some teams are higher or lower based on difficulty of schedule. I also do not claim it is error free.
If you’re looking at the entire season, Cal also beat UCI during the first weekend of the season. Cal also now has a Big four win over Stanford while UCI has the worst loss out of any top-10 team to a Cal Baptist team that couldn’t beat Brown. I think having UCI and Cal tied would be fair
LMU lost to UCI by 1, led pacific through the third in their first match up, but could not finish, lost by 2. Top player out with injury half way through the season, announcer last weekend stated he is now a redshirt so he can return next year. They will only graduate 3 this year, one goalie and 2 non starters. Call it a building year, second game against pacific they started three freshmen, two sophomores, and one junior and they led 4-2 at half. So mostly underclassmen against mostly 5th and 6th year players.
Also were in a 2 goal game with USC at halftime. They play a very dynamic active zone defense but seemingly struggle offensively likely to their leading scorer being injured
This and H2O’s posts are interesting. To determine schedule strength (so it can be applied to record), basketball and baseball use a quadrant system. Layered over that is home-away record with the possibility of an overtime/extra innings bonus. Hockey does something similar. This is especially useful in a small sport like WP with tiers, otherwise overall record is very misleading.
Using the latest rankings:
Quad 1: UCLA, USC, Stanford, Pacific
Quad 2: Fordham, Princeton, Cal, Pepperdine
Quad 3: UCI, Davis, LBSU, San Jose State, Harvard
Quad 4: UCSD, Cal Baptist, UCSB, Loyola, Santa Clara
“Fifth quartile”: Brown, Navy, Salem, Bucknell, GW
Applying +/- quadrant points to overall record would likely move a team like UCI (etc) up and and those without Quad 1 games down slightly.
(The coaches and pollsters already do a very good job at converting their own instincts accurately - models are very dangerous if the inputs are not constantly backtested and tuned - other sports have learned this the hard way).
This is why H2H is such a great clarifier. You can twist yourself into a pretzel…best I can tell the earlier comments are saying Fordham should have scheduled 9 more games vs Top 10 teams and hoped to go 1-8 with close losses so they can match what Princeton has done so far
that comment that shows no respect for CBU, a hard-working team and program that has wins over Pepperdine, UCI, UCSD, LMU etc. since Rosa took over. Yeah they take a few losses every year but they also are a very tough opponent that always plays hard with a roster of less than well-known players. Smart coaches do not over look CBU. Just ask Pep.
CBU is up 7-2 on Santa Clara right now end of first period. too bad the commentator did not turn on the audio… commercials have volume game has none. hopefully they figure it out before the UOP/Fordham game…
