As I’ve stated before, I think this year’s open division will be extremely competitive. Newport is clearly the favorite. Santa Margarita has answered every test. I think the next five are CDM, Oaks Christian, Mira Costa, JSerra and Wilson. Teams 2-7 can all win against each other on any given day. Beating Newport is possible but will need to be a special performance.
The 8th seed is wide open. Could be Harvard-Westlake, Loyola, Dos Pueblos or Laguna, IMO. HW and Loyola have the best claim. They split the season series. Looking at teams in the same neighborhood as them, both beat Buena. Loyola beat and HW lost to Mater Dei. Both lost to Mira Costa. Both lost to JSerra.
True. They split the season series, both one goal games, I think. I think Buena losing to the teams above hurts them. Dos Pueblos may get the benefit of not playing them. If Buena were to get the nod over DP then I can’t see how Loyola doesn’t get it ahead of both of them.
CIF says tomorrow at 2pm. If it’s anything like the girls’ release they might need to do redo it three times
Based on last year the teams by Division would be:
Open: 8 teams
D1: 16 teams
D2: 32 teams
D3: 32 teams
D4: 32 teams
D5: 32 teams
D6: 16 teams
What to watch for are teams that fall in the upper divisions but didn’t get their league’s AQ or finish above .500. I know based on some projections there was one team projected in D2 and there were three projected for D3 that will not qualify for CIF. It will be interesting if they move teams up or just got with a 31 & 29 team bracket for those divisions.
I think those were the first round byes in last year’s bracket. Otherwise that kinda sucks for, say, a lower league champion who gets moved up because of it.
Those are all huge rivalry games. I can’t speak for all of them, but there’s a couple on there where division placement has absolutely nothing to do with the outcome. They wanted to beat the hell out of each other!
I agree with this, especially after watching all the North/South Games and yesterday’s results.
Until yesterday, I had Loyola at 8 as they were a tough out the last couple of weeks and improved dramatically since the beginning of the season. However, not sure who gets that 8th spot between Loyola and Harvard Westlake. Santa Margarita played great up north and are coming into the playoffs smoking hot.
Secondly, after talking to a coach who is well-versed in the Massey ratings, he mentioned to keep an eye on Laguna Beach, who have won 10 in a row. Loyola and Harvard-Westlake, I believe, are 3 and 4 in their last 7. Do I feel Laguna Beach is better than Loyola and Harvard-Westlake ? No, but HC Cameron Hauer is doing what he needs to do–win the games that are on their schedule–and he has done that, even though their strength of schedule in those 10 games has not been great. We’ll have to see what the Massey Ratings system says and the CIFSS committee.
Another note: Buena just got junior Nash Porter (Canadian Youth Team eligible, which is a nice boost to their perimeter.
Hopefully every team is healthy going into the playoffs and I’m not sure on the status of Sean Anderson at Newport.
Both the Open Division and D1 should be great. There are going to be some epic battles in the 1st Round in D1.
Not a whole lot of love for Harvard Westlake but it was known they were going to have a drop off this year but they stayed with the three major tournaments filled with Open Division teams and their record shows it. Strength of schedule should matter, so I’d put HW in the 8 spot. No way should Laguna make it in the Open Division. Their 10 wins in a row don’t include a single quality win commensurate with Open caliber teams. They’ve lost to Wilson, Santa Margarita and Mater Dei (who finished 11th in the North-South Tourn.)
I would probably flip (I) CdM and SM, and (II) JS and Oaks in these rankings. Doesn’t JS have two wins over Oaks? Will be interesting to see how this will go.
