This is exactly the limitation with Power Rankings. As the website explains, Power Rankings only look at three things:
(i) whether you beat or lost to a team,
(ii) your opponent’s raw winning percentage, and
(iii) what division your opponent is in.
A Win against a D1 team with an even record (12-12, 50%) generates 48 points. A loss to a D2 team with a higher record (18-6, 75%) generates 43 points.
Example 1, if Torrey Pines beats San Marino out of county, the system will look to (i) the W, (ii) San Marino’s winning percentage (76.9% based on a 20-6 record as published by Southern Section), and then (iii) apply points that correspond to the win. But errors occur, because the system is not automatic for out of county games.
In example 1, TP’s W against San Marino generated 47 ranking points. But since San Marino has a win percentage of 75% or higher, the points should be 49. And if San Marino gets credit for being ranked higher than other Div 1 points-generating teams (like Edison, for example) it should also generate Div 1 points (so 50 points for a win).
In BWPDad’s Example, Carlsbad lost to Laguna Beach. LB is clearly a Div 1 team. So C-bad should get the points for a L against a Div 1 team with a 24-6 record (80%): 44 Ranking Points. I admit that it’s highly possible that SDS has not updated out of town win/loss records, and that the loss occured when LB was not yet over 75%. Once hte points are updated, C-bad should see aggregate 45.36 points (up from 45.28), at least until the 44 points from their loss against La Jolla HS are added in (net 45.23).
Well, on the margin we should encourage the coaches to input all games in to HomeCampus and hope that CIF-SDS gets the manual entries correct after the regular season is in the book.
Cmbreeze, I read your initial post a few days ago and didn’t re-read until just now. Looks like we have the same grouping. I’d have to analyze a little closer to figure out how they are going to seed 4-6. Valhalla just beat Santana which should seal Bishop’s into the 3 seed.
Tomorrow’s games between Poway and CCA and TP and Carlsbad should be great.
Did a little bit deeper dive. Carlsbad and TP have very similar results. No wins vs any other open division contender except Carlsbad’s win vs Poway. They both have a win over a Southern Section team in Jeff’s top 25. So if Torrey wins, I definitely think they’ll get the nod over Carlsbad.
I think Torrey needs CCA to win and Carlsbad wants, but doesn’t necessarily need, CCA to win. Does that sound right?
Kind of wild to think Carlsbad could end up the 2 seed in Division 1. I saw them earlier in the year and thought they’d be closer to Bishop’s than division 1. Apparently not
Here’s a scenario where I could see CCA being left out of open. Let’s say Carlsbad and Poway win. Carlsbad, Poway, and CCA would all be 1-1 vs each other. I think in this case Carlsbad’s strength of schedule and win vs Dos Pueblos separates them and puts them 7. Poway would take 8 with their head to head vs CCA. That leaves CCA the 1st seed in d1.
It’s a tough league for sure. Possible three way tie at 4-1, possible three way tie at 3-2. Everyone wants a win tomorrow, which will make things . . . interesting.
If SDS Open is who the Komitet says it is, you’re right that C-bad SOS could put them over CCA. But if Power Rankings govern, I think CCA is Open even with a L (because C-bad would still be behind and swap up, which should mean that CCA would not shift down 2).
Again, lots of tea leaf reading before (a) the actual games and (b) the Komitet gaming.
I think it is interesting that you said TP and Carlsbad have similar results. I looked at their 8 common opponents and Torrey Pines went 4-4 in those games with a -9 goal differential while Carlsbad went 6-2 with a +48 goal differential so net Carlsbad was 7 goals better per game against common opponents. It will obviously be determined in the pool tomorrow.
Fair points. I didn’t have time to look into all their common opponents. From a quick glance it didn’t look that different (I wasn’t accounting for scores). I was more thinking their season and league records are nearly identical (if Torrey wins tomorrow they’ll both be 15-10 and 3-2 in league). I’d give Carlsbad a slight edge on strength of schedule, but Torrey has played in some good tournaments vs good out of SD teams, including a win over Downey.
But, yes, it’ll be settled in the pool! If anyone goes to either game tomorrow I’d be interested in hearing about it
This is my take. I don’t think league goal differentiation should determine the seeding because when a lot of these other league games are played and some teams are comfortably ahead of the game coaches usually put in their subs in instead of piling on the score so I think it should only be goal differentiation between the three teams that they played against. At least that’s how they determine the seeding at JO quals so it should be the same. So I would put Carlsbad +1 first CCA 0 second and Poway -1 third. I don’t know if that’s how they calculate the seedings but that’s how it should be I believe.
If it’s power rankings, its CCA, TP, P, Cbad, with each team having an argument for why they should be in a different spot. (Noting that not all games for all four North County Coastal League teams have been entered on CIF SDS Home Campus.) Once those games are entered, it’s up to the committee.
That takes us to maybe another thread but man the way the power rankings are done is bad. Bishop’s is clearly the third best team in SD but the power rankings have them 7 because there is no real context of who the opponent is beyond the opponents record. I took a look at the top ten teams according to the power rankings and used MaxPreps rankings to compare who they’ve played. I’ll share without comments just found it interesting.
Goal differential definitely won’t matter for this. I don’t think power rankings matter for Open. The coaches/committee will seed the top 8 the way they feel it should be. I hope they do at least. Division 1-3 is strictly power rankings unless a team is directly behind a team they’ve beat, then they can swap one spot.
I think Max preps has the rankings in the right order perhaps I would put bishops ahead of Santana. But Santana Helix Valhalla Carlsbad CCA and Poway are pretty evenly matched. Any team could beat any team on a given day. It’s tough to seed them.
In D1 Canyon Crest is first seed and Torrey Pines is second seed.
Any potential upsets? Valhalla played Bishop’s earlier, only losing by 2. Don’t know if it was a 2 goal game throughout or not. I heard Valhalla just lost to division 2 team Granite Hills a day or two ago though.
If it ends up CC vs LJ, can La Jolla beat Cathedral?
That’s too bad about Canyon Crest being Div 1. I thought they were good enough to be in open division. Especially after defeating a tough Carlsbad team.
I’ve heard Bishops has 2 starters injured going into the playoffs, I don’t have direct knowledge so I won’t list the names I’ve heard but that could be interesting.
Santana v Carlsbad should be a coin flip game. Santana won the first meeting 19-18 in double OT a few weeks ago. Carlsbad has had 3 opportunities to play teams that beat them earlier this season and are 3-0 in those redemption games (San Clemente, Dos Pueblos & Foothill), flipping the earlier scores by an average of 8 goals. We’ll see if that trend continues.
